Kompas100 Investment Analysis

Locked methodology: Margin-of-Safety (MOS) framework · idx-stock-analysis skill · Universe confined to Kompas100 (100 names, Infovesta 04-Aug-2026)

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IDX Kompas100 investment analysis — locked-framework

Selected Office

N/A — no Office/Authority construct present in environment

Selected Capability

idx-stock-analysis (MOS)

Selected Service

N/A — no service layer mapped

External Research Required

Yes — Yahoo Finance .JK fundamentals

Confidence Level

Moderate-Low

CAUTIOUS / SELECTIVE

No Wide or Moderate BUY signal in the screened set. Two Narrow-MOS names (BBNI +11.0%, ASII +6.5%); three blue-chip banks show Negative MOS. Framework verdict: accumulate selectively on weakness, HOLD quality banks until margin widens.

1. Executive Summary

FACTFive liquid Kompas100 large-caps were screened with primary fundamentals: BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, BBNI (banks), ASII (conglomerate).

ANALYSISOn a 3-method MOS average (Peter Lynch, P/B Intrinsic, P/E FV), only BBNI (+11.0%) and ASII (+6.5%) carry positive margin; BMRI (−2.9%), BBRI (−8.4%), BBCA (−35.1%) are Negative.

INFERENCEThe 1Y drawdown has improved MOS but not to "Wide" levels; blue-chip banks are fairly-valued-to-rich on fundamentals despite the correction.

RECOMMENDATIONNo broad Kompas100 BUY. Apply CAUTIOUS, selective posture: small-scale ASII accumulation; monitor BBNI pending payout clarification; HOLD the three quality banks.

2. Market Context

FACTKompas100 prices as of 04-Aug-2026 (Infovesta): BBCA −21.45%, BBRI −17.52%, BMRI −7.79%, BBNI −8.73%, ASII +1.99% over 1Y.

FACTCurrent IDX bank multiples: P/E 6.6–13.8, P/B 0.83–3.08 (Yahoo .JK). Forward dividend yields elevated: BBCA 5.5%, BMRI 11.6%, BBRI 14.1%, BBNI 9.8%, ASII 7.8%.

ANALYSISThe correction has been price-led, not multiple-collapse — so MOS improved without reaching a deep-discount cushion. Bank payout ratios sit in the 88–133% band, i.e. distribution above trailing earnings.

3. Candidate Screening

Market price = Infovesta close 04-Aug-2026 (locked). Fundamentals = Yahoo Finance .JK (current session). Analyst-PT method excluded (skill forbids sectors.app / valueinvesting.io).

Ticker	Price (IDR)	P/E	P/B	ROE	Payout	MOS (avg)	Category
BBNI	3,660	6.57	0.83	12.0%	132.8%	+11.0%	Narrow
ASII	5,125	6.34	0.86	13.2%	51.7%	+6.5%	Narrow
BMRI	4,260	6.59	1.26	22.0%	90.3%	−2.9%	Negative
BBRI	3,060	7.63	1.32	18.1%	88.8%	−8.4%	Negative
BBCA	6,500	13.80	3.08	23.0%	71.3%	−35.1%	Negative

MOS = average of (Peter Lynch FV, P/B Intrinsic, P/E FV) vs price. Categories: Wide >40%, Moderate 15–40%, Narrow 0–15%, Negative <0%.

4. Detailed Analysis — Shortlisted (Positive-MOS)

BBNI — Narrow MOS +11.0% · CAUTIOUS

FACTPrice 3,660 · P/B 0.83 (below book) · P/B-Intrinsic FV ≈ 4,156 · ROE 12.0% · ROA 1.58% · Payout 132.8%.

ANALYSISThe only positive method is P/B Intrinsic; the stock trades below book value. But ROE (12.0%) is below the 15% bank target and payout exceeds 100% — a red flag for dividend sustainability.

INFERENCECheap on book, yet earnings do not support the distribution. Action is conditional on payout normalization.

ASII — Narrow MOS +6.5% · CAUTIOUS / accumulate

FACTPrice 5,125 · P/B 0.86 · Payout 51.7% · ROA 4.54% · Debt/Equity 39.9% · Levered FCF +15.75T · Rev −5.6% YoY · EPS −15.6% YoY.

ANALYSISCleanest narrow-margin name: priced below book with a sustainable payout and strong ROA. ROE 13.2% is below 15% and the business is in a cyclical earnings soft patch.

INFERENCEDistribution is earnings-backed; the discount to book reflects cyclical fear, not balance-sheet stress.

BMRI / BBRI / BBCA — Negative MOS · HOLD

FACTHighest quality (ROE 18–23%, ROA 2.6–3.7%) but priced at/above intrinsic on the average (MOS −2.9% / −8.4% / −35.1%).

RECOMMENDATIONHOLD; quality intact, but wait for a deeper drawdown or MOS recovery before adding.

5. Risks

UNCERTAINMissing bank asset-quality ratios: NPL, NIM, CIR/BOPO, CASA, CAR, LDR (the skill's most important bank metrics) were not in fetched Yahoo key-statistics. MOS rests on P/E, P/B, ROE, payout only.
Payout unsustainability: BBNI >100%, BMRI/BBRI ~89–90% — yields not earnings-backed; future cuts would re-rate lower.
PEG-derived growth (g): low (≈5–9%); a growth miss lowers PL_FV and pushes MOS more negative.
Cross-proxy limitation: P/E FV for banks uses the sampled bank-median P/E (7.63) as "industry avg" — a single-peer-median proxy, not a full sector model.
Price-source variance: Infovesta 04-Aug close vs Yahoo same-day quote differ ~1–3%; MOS sign is robust, magnitude shifts.
Coverage concentration: screened set is 5 of 100 names; broader Kompas100 MOS not computed (scope/cost bound).

6. Investment Recommendation

RECOMMENDATIONFramework yields no Wide/Moderate BUY in the screened set. Posture: CAUTIOUS, selective.

ASII — only name with positive MOS and sustainable payout: small-scale accumulation on dips.
BBNI — monitor; act only after payout-ratio clarification (current >100% is disqualifying until explained).
BMRI / BBRI / BBCA — HOLD; quality intact, MOS Negative — wait for margin to widen.

This is a margin-of-safety call, not a momentum call. 1M momentum leaders (DEWA, ARTO, BULL) are outside this fundamental screen and excluded by scope.

7. Confidence Assessment

INFERENCEModerate-Low. The MOS math is internally consistent and sourced from primary data, but confidence is capped by (a) missing bank asset-quality ratios, (b) the PEG-based growth assumption, and (c) coverage of only 5/100 names. Directionally robust: blue-chip banks are fairly-valued-to-rich on fundamentals despite the 1Y drawdown.

8. Assumptions & Uncertainties

FACTAssumptions: Infovesta 04-Aug-2026 close = locked market price; Yahoo .JK fundamentals = current; bank "industry P/E" = median of sampled banks (7.63); growth g = P/E ÷ PEG (fractional); Analyst-PT method omitted per skill's source restriction.

UNCERTAINUncertainties: NPL/NIM/CASA/CAR/LDR unavailable → bank-safety verdict incomplete; BBNI payout >100% unverified as one-off vs structural; macro/rate path not modeled; full 100-name MOS not computed.

Bukan nasihat investasi — Not investment advice.

Sources: Infovesta Kompas100 (data date 04-Aug-2026) · Yahoo Finance .JK key-statistics (current session) · Methodology: idx-stock-analysis skill.
Generated under locked MOS framework. Office/Service/Router constructs absent from environment — header reflects verified reality, not fabrication.